Iran does not conduct official ethnic censuses, so all figures come from CIA World Factbook, Britannica and demographic compilations.
The breakdown has remained stable:
Persians (Fars): 61% (~56–57 million) — majority in central, northern, and eastern provinces; dominant in Tehran, Isfahan, Fars, etc.
Azerbaijanis (Azeri Turks): 16% (~15 million) — mainly northwest (East Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan).
Kurds: 10% (~9–9.3 million) — northwest (Kurdistan, Kermanshah, West Azerbaijan provinces).
Lurs: 6% (~5.5–6 million) — southwest/central (Lorestan, parts of Khuzestan, Chaharmahal).
Baloch: 2% (~1.9 million) — southeast (Sistan and Baluchestan).
Arabs: 2% (~1.9 million) — southwest (Khuzestan).
Turkmen and other Turkic tribes: 2% (~1.9 million) — northeast (Golestan, North Khorasan).
Others (Armenians, Assyrians, Georgians, Circassians, etc.): 1%.
Persians + other Iranian peoples (Lurs, Gilakis, Mazandaranis, etc.) form the ~80% “Iranian peoples” core, with Turkic and other minorities making up the rest.
Percentage of Persians against the regime
Reliable anonymous polling (primarily GAMAAN surveys, 2024–2026, with 30,000–158,000 respondents inside Iran) shows 70–80% of Iranians overall say they would not vote for the Islamic Republic and oppose its continuation. Support for regime change as a precondition for progress is the top position (~40–60%, peaking at 81% during major protests).
A leaked Iranian Ministry of Culture poll found 72.9% want religion out of government.
For ethnic Persians specifically (the 61% majority, concentrated in urban/central areas).
Estimates are 65–75% want the regime gone or fundamentally changed. Opposition is slightly lower than the national average only because some rural Persian conservatives remain more supportive.
It is much higher (80%+) among urban, educated, and younger Persians (Tehran, Isfahan, Shira)
Most likely in the next few days
Kurdistan Province (capital: Sanandaj) — top candidate for the first major town/province to shift. Heavy recent strikes on local security infrastructure.
Kermanshah Province (capital: Kermanshah city) — very close second. Border posts and IRGC sites already hit to facilitate infiltration.
Parts of West Azerbaijan Province (especially Mahabad and Kurdish-majority districts around Urmia) — secondary but rapid follow-on.
Next Sistan and Baluchestan Province (Zahedan) for Baloch insurgents (Jaish al-Adl), but Kurds are better organized.
Broader Persian urban uprisings are hoped for by the Trump administration. The outer ethnic groups guns and external backing right now.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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