OpenAI has committed to spending $1.15 trillion (updated to $1.4 trillion) on hardware & cloud infrastructure between 2025 & 2035.
OpenAI announced they would hit $100B in 2027 which is earlier than expected. OpenAI expects to have a $20 billion per year revenue run rate at the end of this year (2025).
If OpenAI hits those numbers then the AI revenue would roughly aligned with the AI capex commitments.
The ($1.1 Trillion) spending breaks down across seven major vendors:
Broadcom ($350B),
Oracle ($300B),
Microsoft ($250B),
Nvidia ($100B),
AMD ($90B),
Amazon AWS ($38B), &
CoreWeave ($22B).
Tomasz Tunguz, Venture Capitalist at Theory Ventures, generates a basic spending plan through contract completion.
Estimated annual compute spending grows from $6B in 2025 to $173B in 2029, reaching $295B in 2030. We built a constrained allocation model with the boundary conditions defined in the appendix below, but this is just a guess. The actual growth rates are 124% (2027→2028), 54% (2028→2029), & 70% (2029→2030).
OpenAI projects a 48% gross profit margin in 2025, improving to 70% by 2029.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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