Nextbigfuture is starting regular Kalshi market reviews alongside our usual science, technology and business coverage. Each day I will look at two or three Kalshi markets, mostly in the technology, science and energy categories, where a deeper understanding of what it takes for something to happen tells you which way it is likely to resolve.
Paid partnership with Kalshi. Get a $50 sign-up bonus with my referral link: https://kalshi.com/r/nextbigfuture (or use code NextBigFuture)
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market. In September 2026 it traded about $60.9 billion in notional volume versus about $13.1 billion for Polymarket (international plus US), roughly 4.7 times more. For 2026 to date the gap is about 2.6 times ($257 billion vs $99 billion), according to [Volume Race](https://volumerace.com/compare/kalshi-vs-polymarket).
Public Track Record on forecasting
I have forecast on two non-money prediction platforms, [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/110947/) and Manifold, for years. On Metaculus, where I have been active since November 2019, I have made 6,596 predictions (almost 2000 out of 2700 resolved). For baseline accuracy, which measures getting predictions right, my best-ever rank is 8th out of 34,617 forecasters, and I am currently 26th out of 28,382. Either way, that is the top 0.1%.
In [October 2023](https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/10/96-6-correct-predictions-in-2023.html) my overall Brier score was 0.071, versus 0.080 for the Metaculus site as a whole. Lower is better, and always guessing 50% scores 0.25.
Some of my better calls were years-ahead questions. For example, I identified early that Elon Musk’s gains from SpaceX and Tesla would push his wealth to a multiple of the second-richest person’s. That kind of gap only happened for some years with John D. Rockefeller’s time.
Sign up with my referral link for a $50 bonus: [kalshi.com/r/nextbigfuture](https://kalshi.com/r/nextbigfuture), or use the code NextBigFuture. Subscribe to the [Nextbigfuture YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/@nextbigfuture) and [Substack](https://nextbigfuture.substack.com/) so you don’t miss the next Kalshi review.
Disclosure: Some links in this post are affiliate or referral links for Kalshi. If you click one and sign up or trade, I (or Z1 Consulting) may earn a commission or referral credit at no extra cost to you. This is a paid relationship, and I only recommend products or platforms I believe may be of interest. Trading event contracts on Kalshi involves substantial risk of loss, is not appropriate for everyone, and is regulated by the CFTC. Availability may be limited by location. This is not financial, investment, or trading advice—do your own research and consider your circumstances before trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Trading event contracts on Kalshi involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You could lose some or all of the money you deposit. Past performance or market activity is not indicative of future results.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
