I am a top ranked predictor on Metaculus. 90+% accuracy rate and 0.07 Brier score. Brier score of 0.25 is 50-50.
This is top-tier for human forecasters and competitive with very good professional or market forecasts.
Kalshi (sponsor) – sign up with my link: http://kalshi.com/r/nextbigfuture
($50 sign-up bonus as stated in the video)
Sponsored by Kalshi.
Here are my Kalshi picks for space and the midterms markets.
Will Blue Origin’s small uncrewed lander touch down on the Moon before SpaceX lands a full Starship?
Will two Starships dock before 2028? Kalshi had those at 68% and 69% when I recorded. I explain why I think the docking market is underpriced (I’m at 95%+), why the single-launch Blue Origin mission has the schedule edge
What does Guam, Florida’s and Texas’s early votes say about the blue wave and House and Senate markets.
Picks covered (prices are what was on screen at recording; markets move):
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
How many House seats will Democrats hold?
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold?
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:26 Starship docking
3:34 Blue Origin vs SpaceX moon
5:52 Guam & early votes
7:26 Florida
8:55 Texas
10:34 House
12:03 Senate
14:17 Close
🚨 TX Election Day: R+1.1 vs 2022 🚨
🔴 ≈4,721 net R votes on 446,988 cast
🔵 Harris ~175,000* (50% of ’22)
🔵 Dallas 98,660 (46%)
🔵 Travis 71,253 (54%)
🔴 Montgomery 42,137 (62%) 🔥
🔴 Bell 17,393 (58%)
🔴 McLennan 15,486 (56%)
🔵 Hays 13,765 (59%)
🔴 Ellis 11,383 (51%)
🔴 Hockley 1,070 (44%)
🔴 Madison 841 (47%)*Harris is a modeled estimate, not an official count.
Election Day votes only, from a small subset of larger TX counties.— 🪑 Nebraska Election Data 🪑 (@NE2EarlyVote) November 3, 2026
Kalshi (sponsor) – sign up with my link: http://kalshi.com/r/nextbigfuture
($50 sign-up bonus as stated in the video)
Disclaimer: This is not financial or trading advice. The predictions are my own opinions. Prediction markets involve risk, and you can lose the money you put in.
Disclosure: This video is sponsored by Kalshi, and I’m paid for sign-ups through my link.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
