Blue Origin has a critical next flight in November for New Glenn. The second New Glenn launch is scheduled for November 12, 2025 after the Nov 9 scrub. The new launch window for Blue Origin’s New Glenn NG-2 mission (carrying NASA’s ESCAPADE Mars probes) opens at 2:50 p.m. ET (19:50 UTC) on Wednesday, November 12, 2025. The mission will launch the NASA ESCAPADE spacecraft for Mars from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.
If there are no more Blue Origin launch failures, then my projection of Blue Origin launches is about 6 launches in 2026 and 12 launches in 2027. However, this would be without launch problems in any launches. This would only be possible if Blue Origin already has over 90% launch reliability and this were to improve to over 94% reliability.
The high number of launch scenarios in 2026 and 2027 depends upon no FAA triggered launch problems.
If the reliability of New Glenn is 90% for each launch being perfect for November 2025 and for ten launches 2026 then we would expect one of the launches to have a problem, which would reduce launches by 25% with a 3 month hold. If the New Glenn has reliability of 94% then there would be a 50% chance for Blue Origin to have 11 good launches in one year. In 2027, if boosters are all recovered and there are two reflights then they could get to 12 launches.
In 2026, Blue Origin would be doing pretty well to have 6 good launches, recovering the boosters but needing to check and still not reflying until 2027.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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