I have worked with Cern Basher to analyze Echostar. Full disclosure I own Echostar and SpaceX.
Based upon this analysis, the value of SpaceX within Echostar works out to an implied price of $80-113 per share depending upon how the parts of Echostar are valued. Echostar has 266 million shares of SpaceX spread over 288 million shares. The FCC has given approval for the ATT deal and the SpaceX spectrum deals but the final transfers of shares and cash require more time and bureaucracy. The May 12 approvals are past the 30 day open for challenges period as of June 11.
There is ongoing auction of Echostar AWS3 spectrum now. $2.9 billion has been set aside for this but the auction is ongoing and each round that bidders are still involved is now adding over $130 million in value.
New Street analyst expect the auction now to close above the $2.9 billion and between $4-8 billion. Every billion added bids will be worth $3.5 per share to Echostar. If the auction lasts extra days into Tuesday to Friday or even next week will be meaning that $1-2 billion per day is being added.
SpaceX has Russell and other index inclusion for $10 billion of buying on Friday, June 19. Nasdaq inclusion is 2 weeks after June 19.
Echostar is over 50% owned by the CEO Charles Ergen. He is not selling his shares. Echostar is in the SP500. another 10-15% is held by institutions.
35% is being shorted. This seems to be a short against SpaceX placed before SpaceX opened. SpaceX will not have options trading for a few more days.
Every day this coming week will see clarity on Echostar AWS3 value. Each day adding $3-6 of cash value. Echostar skipped a $100-200 million in debt payment a couple weeks ago. They will get the account with potential payment of $2.9 billion unlocked with the auction. Already $1.33 billion will be returned. All of that after Monday would be returned if the auction continues. 10 days after the auction closes 20% of the auction is paid. 20 days after the auction all of auction funds are paid. There can be some of the 200 licenses retained.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
