The IR-compiled delivery consensus is 406,024. This should get beaten by 60,000-80,000 cars.
Tesla vehicle shipments – Part 2
Kalshi also moving much higher. My number is 490k plus for shipments, with an absolute minimum of 475k.
Kalshi (directional “Above X” markets)
Above 460k: ~65% (up sharply, e.g., +24 points in recent data).kalshi.com
Above 470k: ~53%.
Above…— Randy Kirk (@RandyWKirk1) July 1, 2026
Hi everyone. Here are my Tesla delivery estimates for Q2 2026. The gap between my estimate and the analyst consensus is unusually large this time.
• My estimate: 466,000
• Analyst consensus: 406,024 (based on Tesla’s survey of 22 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled… pic.twitter.com/dy4x8GtV0i— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) July 1, 2026
🚨 The betting markets are expecting Tesla Q2 deliveries to beat consensus by a wide margin. $TSLA https://t.co/Ttv1Rv6ild
— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) July 1, 2026
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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