Law offices of Robert D Perry reports 398 NHTSA reported Waymo involved accidents in the first half of 2025. Waymo was only allowing employees to drive or ride with Waymo on highways until a few weeks ago. Waymo has had 50 million miles up to end of 2024 and about 100 million miles in 2025. There are about 2-4% of the miles in Austin. Waymo launched public robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in March 2025 with about 100 cars. They had to ramp up the service and had 4% of the cars for 9 months. They are reportedly expanding to 200 cars in Austin. Likely 3-4 million miles in Austin in 2025.
Waymo getting to 1 billion miles in 2026 would be 1% of Uber and 1% of Tesla if Tesla gets 1 million unsupervised robotaxi.
Tesla reported over 250,000 miles in Austin with about 10-20 cars up to mid-October 2025. Most miles were in the Sept-Oct timeframe with the ramp. Only 7000 miles in first month.
Tesla fleet and miles expansion in Austin.
TESLA Fleet expansion timeline
June–August 2025: Started at ~10–15 vehicles.
September–October 2025: Grew to ~15–30 vehicles.
November 2025: Stabilized around 29–31 vehicles.
December 2025: Elon Musk announced on November 26 that the fleet would “roughly double next month”. This is about 60 cars in December
Likely 250,000 miles in November and 400,000 miles in December. Tesla is about 25-35% of Waymo fleet size in Austin. 30 to 100 and 60 to ~200.
Tesla has 5 times as many cars and miles in the SF Bay Area but those have had a safety driver up to this point.
In December 2025, Waymo books more than 1 million rides a month in Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Bay Area communities, Austin, Atlanta and, as of last month, Miami. Waymo is targeting 1 million rides per week by the end of 2026. Waymo said in a blog post. Estimates suggest Waymo makes about $20 per ride, which adds up to more than $20 million a month. They still lose over $2 billion per year. At 1 million rides per week, its annualized revenue would hit about $1 billion. Waymo would still be losing money. Waymo’s fleet will likely expand to at least 10,000 vehicles over the next year from more than 2,500 now.
There are downloadable data from NHTSA on Waymo and Tesla robotaxi crashes. The incident reports for autonomous driving systems (ADS) under NHTSA’s Standing General Order 2021-01, primarily from Waymo (Jaguar I-PACE vehicles), with a few from Zoox, Aurora, Beep, and Motional. It covers incidents mostly in October and November 2025.
Waymo in Austin in October up to November 17 2025 per NHTSA
Five Waymo incidents in Austin, TX:
Oct 16: Heavy truck (street, property damage).
Oct 13: Bus (street, property damage).
Oct 12: SUV (parking lot, property damage).
Nov 8: Passenger car (street, property damage).
Nov 6: Passenger car (intersection, minor hospitalization for other driver).
All low-severity (property damage except one involving other party’s injury). None ADS-at-fault per narratives ( other vehicles changing lanes/backing).
Austin Independent School District reported 19 instances (since the 2025–2026 school year start) of Waymo vehicles illegally passing stopped school buses with extended stop signs/lights.
NHTSA opened PE25013 in October 2025 to investigate Waymo’s ADS performance around school buses.
Waymo issued a voluntary software recall in December 2025, addressing prediction errors.
The City of Austin reports 140 incidents with Waymo in 2024 and 2025. There were 5 collisions per Austin data for Waymo, 6 near misses, 48 safety concerns and 22 bus stop arm violations.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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