Semianalysis AI Value Capture – The Shift To Model Labs Anthropic is now making $44 billion per year run rate and this is heading to $100 billion per year by the end of 2026.
As of today, Memory SOCAMM contract pricing paid by Nvidia at ~$8/GB in 1Q26, a sharp step-up from 4Q25 to 1Q26. Predicted exit ’26 pricing for SOCAMM could exceed $13/GB, which is roughly in line with mobile DRAM pricing expected by the end of this year; accordingly, we view ~$10/GB as a reasonable assumption for Nvidia’s SOCAMM cost.
Vera Rubin VR NVL72: V for Value – Rubin delivers a step jump in performance per TCO.
ROI is going more strongly to AI model makers like Anthropic and to the memory companies.
Capex Per Watt Trends from GB300 to VR NVL72
For GB300, DRAM was bundled into the board and marked up at ~75% gross margin, making the margin charged on the memory on the board consistent with what is implicitly priced for the Blackwell systems.
For Rubin, we initially assumed the same dynamic, with the understanding that Nvidia would target an overall system Gross Margin in the mid-70s. As such, our initial Bill of Material (BoM) modeling applied a consistent margin throughout the entire Strata board leaving SOCAMM margin at the same mid 70s margin.
Hyperscaler networking cost advantages over Neocloud only becomes a 10% increase in all-in capital cost for a full rack-scale server.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
