Earlier this year, a major scandal rocked the prediction markets world after an account correctly bet $20,000 on an imminent attack on Venezuelan soil. Just hours later, US president Donald Trump issued orders authorizing the military strike, an invasion that saw Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro get kidnapped by US soldiers.
Rampant insider trading has long plagued platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Even tragic events like devastating wildfires and deadly conflict are game, with insiders getting caught capitalizing on nonpublic information to gain an edge over an unsuspecting public — and leaving them to hold the bag. Case in point, a US Special Forces soldier was charged by the Department of Justice for committing “commodities fraud” and “making an unlawful monetary transaction” after betting on the Venezuela invasion on Polymarket.
Now, a mysterious bettor on Polymarket has staked around $409,000 on Russian president Vladimir Putin leaving office by the end of this year, once again drawing attention to the topic.
As NBC News reports, the account is called “ZnotluvuiSamez,” and features the Ukrainian flag as its profile picture. The account made multiple big bets surrounding the Russo-Ukrainian war, including $409,000 on a contract that asks if “Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?“
According to users’ overall bets, there’s currently a “11 percent chance” that Putin will be out by the end of the year.
Of course, a massive bet is far from a guarantee that Putin will no longer be president, whether through an ouster or a decision to step down. For one, Putin isn’t up for reelection until four years from now — and given the country’s track record, it’s not like the democratic process is being in any way respected regardless.
The news comes after Moscow was hammered by renewed Ukrainian drone strikes, with former US defense secretary Leon Panetta telling NewsNation on Wednesday that “it’s clear right now that Putin is cornered in this situation and is not quite sure what to do.”
“He obviously ought to, frankly, negotiate some kind of ceasefire, but knowing Putin, he will continue to resist that, and Russia is going to pay the price,” he added.
Ehile there’s no evidence to suggest an imminent ouster, the sheer amount of insider trading on Polymarket lends the enormous bet at least some credence.
At the same time, the war in Ukraine is showing no sign of letting up, with Putin ruling out any future peace talks. In other words, it’s not looking likely that the president will simply hang up his coat in the middle of a raging conflict — and after over 26 years of ruling Russia with an iron fist.
More on Polymarket: Grim New Prediction Market Lets Gamblers Bet on Raging Wildfires, Even as Families Flee in Terror
