Morningstar ignores SpaceX largest current business and vastly underestimates all of its future businesses. They come up with a valuation only half of the IPO and even achieving AI data centers in space is not worth the full IPO valuation. They value an AI data center in space scenario as only worth $1.3 trillion.
The SpaceX business right now in terms of revenue and profits is the $15 billion per year from the rental of the AI data centers that already have been built.XAI gets this from renting out 325000 GPUS. 230,000 H100, H200 and B200 GPUs at Colossus 1 and 95,000 B300 GPUs from Colossus 2. If XAI only needed 275,000 B200 GPUs to run and train Cursor Composer and Grok then XAI could rent out 185,000 B300s. This could be another $20 billion per year in rent from an already built and operating AI data center.
XAI built Colossus 2 in 12 months. XAI has a Macroharder – aka Colossus 3 facility prepared for its building and has arranged for 2 gigawatts of energy. This could be 1 million Rubin GPUs ready to run AI for others or their own Cursor or Grok. This could be $100 billion per year in rent.
Morningstar dismisses this business and makes no attempt to discuss or model XAI or SpaceX following up to build more terrestrial ai data center.
They discuss verticalizing the AI infrastructure and talk about some chip production but they ignore Terafab. SpaceX just bought over 3100 acres (about 5 square miles) where they plan to build Terafab.
They have no scenario where XAI does anything or where Cursor acquisition is completed and it becomes relavant. This is despite ove $3 billion per year in XAI revenue and over $3 billion in Cursor revenue. A bullish cursor and grok code scenario is reaching one third of future Anthropic renenue of hundreds of billions of dollars per year.
There is no mention of X Payments. This is already in beta and Elon Musk created Paypal.
They describe what they call a wildly optimistic scenario that only doubles low balled Starlink revenue and value. This is where Starship is working in 2029 and then AI data centers get to 20% of earth based global ai data center build. XAI has already built 20% of the ai data centers completed in the last two years.
About 10 gigawatts of AI data center built in last two years and 2 gigawatts by XAI.
Starship could be launching real satellites in 2-3 months by just relighting the rockets to safely de-orbit. This safe de-orbit was why they were holding back puting up payloads. They did not want to risk 200 tons of space junk which could happen if the engines did not de-orbit.
The Starship booster has already been returned 3 times and reused twice. A fully reused booster would lower launch costs to $100-200 per kilogram.
They talk about the heat shield on Starship as something three years away but that looks like it is working from the last launch.
If the full AI data center in space scenario happens it will be 10-100 times the global AI data center deployment. It will tens to hundreds of trillions of dollars.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
